ICES advice 2018

“Hake (Merluccius merluccius) in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock (Greater North Sea, Celtic Seas, and the northern Bay of Biscay)”


Go to latest advice
Go to Standard Graphs page
Go to Transparent Assessment Framework page


ICES advice on fishing opportunities

ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2018 should be no more than 115 335 tonnes.


Stock development over time

The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has increased significantly since 2006 and is well above historical estimates. Fishing mortality (F) has decreased significantly after 2005, and has been below FMSY since 2012. The recruitment (R) estimate for 2016 is above average

Figure 1 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Summary of the stock assessment.Recruitment, F, and SSB plots show 95% confidence intervals (shaded area). Assumed recruitment values are unshaded.

Summary of the assessment

Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes. Highs and lows are 95% confidence intervals


Year recruitment high_recruitment low_recruitment low_SSB SSB high_SSB catches landings discards low_F F high_F StockPublishNote Purpose Fage fishstock recruitment_age AssessmentYear units stockSizeDescription stockSizeUnits fishingPressureDescription fishingPressureUnits
1978 304112 362711 254980 63811 76696 89581 50551 50551 0 0.475 0.52 0.565 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1979 283534 342511 234714 87349 97911 108473 51096 51096 0 0.499 0.55 0.601 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1980 316489 376737 265874 90440 100483 110526 57265 57265 0 0.587 0.65 0.713 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1981 599540 680311 528359 77086 86475 95863 53918 53918 0 0.588 0.67 0.752 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1982 418396 487682 358954 61574 70398 79222 54994 54994 0 0.631 0.69 0.749 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1983 152160 191109 121149 61116 69158 77200 57507 57507 0 0.589 0.63 0.671 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1984 295900 343830 254653 76028 83620 91213 63286 63286 0 0.614 0.67 0.726 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1985 686703 766526 615192 73628 80312 86995 56099 56099 0 0.696 0.80 0.904 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1986 412289 462981 367147 54953 61012 67071 57092 57092 0 0.843 0.91 0.977 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1987 487329 540858 439098 42178 47228 52278 63369 63369 0 0.943 1.00 1.057 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1988 530902 583411 483117 45273 49688 54103 64823 64823 0 0.953 1.02 1.087 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1989 506464 552550 464222 43936 47762 51587 66473 66473 0 1.022 1.09 1.158 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1990 538463 585622 495101 41185 44295 47404 59954 59954 0 0.920 1.00 1.080 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1991 317821 349116 289331 41551 44539 47527 58129 58129 0 0.891 0.94 0.989 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1992 330559 361573 302205 42211 45268 48325 56617 56617 0 0.956 1.01 1.064 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1993 602754 640500 567230 40525 43205 45886 52144 52144 0 1.009 1.08 1.151 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1994 329784 354433 306851 31109 33366 35622 51259 51259 0 1.054 1.10 1.146 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1995 165603 180611 151842 30106 32134 34162 57621 57621 0 1.086 1.13 1.174 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1996 401880 427143 378109 35229 37306 39383 47210 47210 0 0.957 1.01 1.063 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1997 275848 299072 254427 29729 31651 33574 42465 42465 0 1.017 1.07 1.123 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1998 452656 483675 423626 24381 25997 27613 35060 35060 0 0.945 1.01 1.075 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
1999 223378 242690 205605 27404 29147 30891 39814 39814 0 0.943 0.99 1.037 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2000 199135 214799 184613 30098 31971 33845 42026 42026 0 0.876 0.92 0.964 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2001 341926 364027 321169 35428 37514 39600 36675 36675 0 0.730 0.78 0.830 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2002 265328 283455 248360 35477 37769 40061 40105 40105 0 0.786 0.83 0.874 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2003 157143 169378 145792 35162 37543 39925 44555 43162 1393 0.782 0.82 0.858 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2004 329055 348489 310705 39631 42139 44647 49029 46416 2614 0.779 0.83 0.881 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2005 217285 232589 202988 37587 40113 42638 51133 46550 4583 0.923 0.97 1.017 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2006 292674 309904 276403 30176 32475 34774 42691 41469 1222 0.823 0.87 0.917 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2007 452723 479690 427272 35583 38281 40979 47258 45093 2165 0.712 0.76 0.808 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2008 734328 774005 696685 41253 44733 48212 51190 47822 3368 0.584 0.63 0.676 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2009 247176 269542 226664 61685 67034 72383 69814 58781 11033 0.475 0.51 0.545 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2010 257528 279068 237649 113783 123089 132395 84878 72760 12118 0.365 0.39 0.415 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2011 265486 290682 242474 185528 201049 216570 101403 87500 13903 0.288 0.31 0.332 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2012 487330 535317 443645 206375 227026 247677 100470 85600 14870 0.238 0.26 0.282 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2013 318837 360376 282088 203272 228246 253220 93108 77708 15400 0.233 0.26 0.287 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2014 217489 251947 187744 210157 241117 272077 99700 89900 9800 0.228 0.26 0.292 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2015 309968 368540 260703 230885 272795 314705 105900 95000 10900 0.212 0.25 0.288 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2016 529458 669948 418429 234898 290234 345570 118634 107534 11100 0.216 0.27 0.324 Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
2017 335071 370115 303346 197000 265666 334331 NA NA NA NA NA NA Stock published Advice NA hke.27.3a46-8abd 0 2017 tonnes SSB tonnes F per year
Download CSV



Go to Top


Stock and explotation status


State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points


Catch scenarios


Table 2 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. The basis for the catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.
Variable Value Source Notes
F (2017) 0.26 ICES (2017a) Mean F(2014–2016).
SSB (2018) 267673.00 ICES (2017a)
R (2017/2018) 335071.00 ICES (2017a) GM (1978–2014); in thousands.
Total catch (2017) 105223.00 ICES (2017a) Forecasted catch from the assessment model (based on F(2017) = Mean F(2014–2016) plus additional discards.
Wanted catch (2017) 93588.00 ICES (2017a) Based on average discard rates observed during 2014–2016.
Unwanted catch (2017) 11635.00 ICES (2017a) Based on average discard rates observed during 2014–2016.

Download CSV



Table 3 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

Basis F Catch 2018 SSB2019
MSY approach: FMSY 0.280 115335 295193
F = 0 0.000 0 401929
Fpa 0.620 211827 206120
Flim 0.870 261716 160047
SSB (2019) = Blim 2.293 383469 44975
SSB (2019) = Bpa 2.731 395825 32001
SSB (2019) = MSY Btrigger 2.731 395825 32001
F = F2017 0.259 108119 301860
EU Recovery Plan^^ 0.250 104736 304987

Download CSV

Catch scenarios Plots. Version 1

Version 2:

Version 3:


Go to Top


Basis of the advice


Table 4 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. The basis of the advice.
Advice basis MSY approach.
Management plan The current recovery plan (EU, 2004) is based on precautionary reference points that are no longer appropriate. ICES has not evaluated this plan.



Quality of the assessment


The uncertainty in the assessment is relatively high, with large changes in biomass estimates in consecutive years. The model confidence intervals are an underestimate of uncertainty because they are narrower than interannual changes in estimates in consecutive years. There is a lack of tuning data for the earlier years of the assessment, for some areas outside of subareas 7 and 8, and for the larger individuals in the population. Given the expansion of the stock into northern areas (ICES, 2017b), there is a potential that not all catches are reported for this stock. Biological sampling from these areas is also limited. The data compilation of this stock is very complicated because it is exploited by several countries and the assessment model configuration is complex. In turn, the assessment model is very sensitive to the data and the settings used. Hence, it is extremely important for the quality of the assessment to have the complete data for all the countries on time and in the right format. missing graphs


Issues relevant for the advice

Discarding of juvenile hake can be substantial in some areas and fleets. Discarding of large individuals has increased in recent years because of quota restrictions in certain fleets.

Some fleets fishing this stock have been under the EU landing obligation since 2016.


Reference Points


Table 5 Herring in Subarea 4 and divisions 3.a and 7.d, autumn spawners. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Framework Reference.point Value Technical.basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 45000 Bpa ICES (2016a)
NA FMSY 0.28 Stochastic simulations on a segmented regression stock–recruitment relationship. ICES (2016a)
Precautionary approach Blim 32000 A low biomass which was followed by a quick recovery. ICES (2016b)
NA Bpa 45000 1.4 × Blim ICES (2016b)
NA Flim 0.87 Fishing mortality resulting in a 5% probability of SSB falling below Blim. ICES(2016b)
NA Fpa 0.62 Flim/1.4 ICES(2016b)
Management plan SSBMGT No defined


Download CSV


Basis of the assessment


Table 6 Herring in Subarea 4 and divisions 3.a and 7.d, autumn spawners. Basis of the assessment and advice
Assessment type Length-based model (SS3; ICES, 2017a) that uses landings and some discards in the model. Additional discards are then included to calculate a catch forecast.
Input data Commercial landings; four survey indices (EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4, SpPGFS-WIBTS-Q3, IGFS-WIBTS-Q4, and RESSGASC); maturity data: constant maturity (Martin, 1991); natural mortality: constant value (0.4).
Discards and bycatch Data series from most fleets are available; 75% of the observed discards are included in the assessment (ICES, 2017a). The discards not used in the assessment are used to top-up the catch advice.
Indicators None.
Other information Last benchmarked in 2014 WKSOUTH (ICES, 2014).
Working group Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Waters Ecoregion (WGBIE)

Download CSV


Information from stakeholders

There is no information available


History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 7 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. ICES advice and catch. All weights are in tonnes




Year ICES.advice Predicted.catch.corresponding.to.advice Predicted.landings.corresponding.to.advice Agreed.TAC. ICES.landings Discards ICES.catch
1987 Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection 63500 63369 NA
1988 Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection 54000 66200 64823 ** NA
1989 Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection 54000 59700 66473 ** NA
1990 Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection 59000 65100 59954 NA
1991 Precautionary TAC; juvenile protection 59000 67000 58129 NA
1992 If required, precautionary TAC 61500 69000 56617 NA
1993 Enforce juvenile protection legislation
71500 52144 NA
1994 F significantly reduced
60000 51259 ** NA
1995 30% reduction in F 31000 55100 57621 NA
1996 30% reduction in F 39000 51100 47210 NA
1997 20% reduction in F 54000 60100 42465 NA
1998 20% reduction in F 45000 59100 35060 NA
1999 Reduce F below Fpa
55100 39814 ** NA
2000 50% reduction in F
42100 42026 ** NA
2001 Lowest possible catch, recovery plan
22600 36675 NA
2002 Lowest possible catch / recovery plan
27000 40105 NA
2003 Lowest possible catch / recovery plan
30000 43162 1393 44555
2004 70% reduction in F or recovery plan
39100 46416 2614 49029
2005 F = 0.19 33000 42600 46550 4583 51133
2006 F = 0.25 44000 43900 41469 1222 42691
2007 Recovery plan limits 50500 52700 45093 2165 47258
2008 Recovery plan limits 54000 54000 47822 3368 51190
2009 F = 0.25 = Fpa 51500 51500 58781 11033 69814
2010 F = 0.25 = Fpa 55200 55105 72760 12118 84878
2011 See scenarios 50600 55105 87540 13903 101443
2012 MSY transition 51900 55105 85677 14870 100547
2013 MSY transition 45400 69440 77708 15400 93108
2014 MSY approach 81846 81846 89928 9800 99728
2015 MSY approach 78457 90849 95023 10900 105923
2016 MSY approach ? 109592 ? 96651 108764 107530 11114 118644
2017 MSY approach ? 123777 119765 NA NA
2018 MSY approach ? 115335 NA NA NA
Download CSV


***

History of the catch and landings

Table 8 Hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Catch distribution by fleet in 2016 as estimated by ICES.
***